Calculator methodology and sources

Landed cost. Goods value is units multiplied by unit cost. Freight uses physical or dimensional chargeable weight for air and express, at least one CBM or tonne for LCL, or container capacity for FCL. Insurance applies to goods plus freight. CIF then feeds duty, import fees and VAT. Cash landed cost also includes the refundable deposit and Beirut fees.

Order flow. Placed orders are reduced by cancellations. Refusals apply only to cash on delivery and card at door orders. Delivered orders produce revenue. Product cost, refused stock loss, packaging, courier charges, returns, payment fees, payout fees and WhatsApp messages produce CM2.

Marketing. Funnel mode calculates CPA as CPC divided by conversion rate. If CPM is used, CPA is CPM divided by 1,000, click rate and conversion rate. Platform ROAS uses placed orders. Cash ROAS uses the delivered share after refusals.

Monthly profit. CM3 subtracts ads and influencers from CM2. Net profit then subtracts content, tools, fixed costs, the monthly share of one-time costs and the volatility buffer. Break-even orders divide fixed commitments by contribution per placed order.

Refusal rates by region. Regional refusal rates are user entered, because no public source publishes a refusal rate per Lebanese region. When the regional breakdown is on, the calculator computes a weighted blend: each region's share of orders multiplied by that region's refusal rate, added together. That blended rate then replaces the single national rate in every formula. If you confirm orders before dispatch, the confirmed refusal rate you type replaces the blended rate. The tool never applies an automatic reduction.

Cash needed. The estimate adds the last shipment's landed cash cost, one-time setup, the peak cash held by the courier and one month of advertising. Payback months appear only when monthly net profit is positive.